Prompted by this article saying 3D TV is a flop http://is.gd/jp44u (via @Splodge360 on twitter), my thoughts on the future of this tech:
Personally, I'm not impressed with how things look on current 3D TVs, although I have only seen the demos in stores so far. However, I believe this time around, 3D will stick and slowly become the norm.
There are a few key reasons why I think this. First, the TV sets themselves need no special expensive additional hardware and the glasses themselves are relatively simple too (although many carry a high premium yet). This means when it comes to buying a new TV, there will soon be very little premium above buying a non-3D capable set. Thus the barrier to adoption of the tech in the home is removed (for new purchases at least).
Next, with the ever increasing use of CGI in film making, it becomes trivial to render the images in 3D. Related to this, the technology needed to record live action in 3D is hardly more expensive for film makers either. Also, unlike the older 3D red/green or film based polarised systems, the technology is in place to make the whole pipeline from film making to cinema to home movie set up trivial. Thus the barrier to creation of content is removed.
What is currently missing to drive consumer adoption is compelling content; content that really has to be seen in 3D. At present, 3D content is "enhanced" but is equally compelling in 2D (I'm thinking of Avatar in particular in this as I felt it worked as well as needed in 2D on bluray).
So, I believe movie content will be increasingly created "3D ready" even if it is down shifted to 2D because there is little reason for it not to be. I believe there will be a slow trickle down of 3D ready TV sets in the homes as all new model TVs will have the tech included even if it isn't being used.
But, while people have to pay a premium to access those 3D capabilities, it's unlikely to create a storm...except if/when the tech taps into the driving force behind the uptake of many new technologies - sex.
The connection between sex and tech uptake has been widely noted and documented previously. The most common cited case in recent history has been the take off of VHS players when porn started to become available.
I suspect therefore that if/when porn producers and distributors tap into 3D, we'll see it really take off.
Even if that doesn't tip things, I think 2012 with the Olympics might. Although, I have read that rapid motion of sports does not lend itself to active glasses 3D TVs due to the halving of the effective frame refresh rate.
There are a few reasons I think it may 'fail' though.
First, the need for glasses. Need I say more?
Second, the current tech could be a flash in the pan - a precursor to a much better tech just around the corner. There have been proof of concept demos of various other 3D tech already that would not require glasses - true holographic displays with colour for example.
Lastly, the TV is quickly being overtaken by the Internet as the entertainment focus for many families, with the TV demotes to background noise. Thus, the driver for the purchase of new screens generally is shrinking. However, with large cheap 3D capable screens becoming the entry level purchase, this probably won't be enough to prevent it in my view.
So what do you think? Have you seen 3D TVs yourself? Did they impress you enough to want one or just thought M'eh (or worse)? Will 2011/12 be the year 3D TV takes of or flops?
- Posted using BlogPress from my phone
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